The US economy experienced a slowdown with a GDP growth rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022, lower than the predicted 2.4%. Despite this, consumer spending on services remains strong, while spending on goods like cars and gasoline declined. Speculation surrounds the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts due to recent inflation increases, with only 6.4% of investors expecting a rate cut in May. The International Monetary Fund raised its 2024 growth forecast for the US to 2.7% due to robust employment and consumer spending.
The US economy grew at a slower annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, lower than expected, while inflation increased by 3.4%. This rise may delay anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The current key interest rate in the US is between 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest in over 20 years. Economists had expected inflation to fall to the Fed's 2% target, but it remains above. The Australian economy also saw a higher-than-expected inflation rate, which may impact borrowing and the Reserve Bank's interest rate decisions.
The International Monetary Fund has increased the global growth forecast for 2024 to 3.2%, with India's growth projection raised to 6.8% due to bullish domestic demand and a rising working-age population. China's growth projection is at 4.6%. Policymakers are advised to focus on economic resilience, with the IMF expecting global growth to remain steady at 3.2% in 2024. Central banks may start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year as global inflation is projected to decline. The US economy is rebounding strongly, while the Euro area is recovering more gradually.
The Commerce Department is expected to report a slowing first-quarter economic growth rate of 2%, down from 3.4% in the previous quarter, with strong consumer spending amid high borrowing rates and inflation pressures. Unemployment benefits applications have remained steady at 212,000, supporting consumer spending and justifying the Federal Reserve's high interest rates to control inflation. The Federal Reserve is monitoring inflation closely and analysts predict a year-over-year inflation increase to 2.6%.
Stocks, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, fell significantly following the US economy's subpar growth in the first quarter. Meta (formerly Facebook) experienced a 14% drop in its stock as a result of weaker-than-expected revenue and increased AI spending. IBM, Caterpillar, and Microsoft led the Dow's decline, while Merck, Coca-Cola, and Apple saw gains. The US GDP for 2024 Q1 rose by 1.6%, lower than the expected 2.4%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth but below the previous quarter's rate of 3.4%.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth of 3.2% this year and next, with concerns about rising inflation and a split in the global trading system. By 2030, the global economy could be expanding at a historically weak 2.8% rate, impacting living standards and anti-poverty efforts. Despite a better-than-expected outlook for the United States, Europe struggles, and poorer nations fall behind. Central banks may lower interest rates later this year. China's growth may fall short due to a property crisis, while Russia's economy continues to grow. The IMF warns of high U.S. government spending risking inflation and global financial stability.
In February 2024, U.S. job openings were at 8.76 million, slightly up from January, with layoffs increasing to 1.7 million. The number of Americans quitting their jobs rose to 3.5 million, indicating confidence in finding better opportunities. Job vacancies have been consistently high, demonstrating the job market's strength despite a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.9%. The Federal Reserve's actions to combat inflation have not led to a recession, with the economy continuing to grow and inflation easing to 3.2% in February.
The International Monetary Fund's Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, warns that strong economic activity in the United States and emerging markets is projected to drive global growth by about 3% in 2024, below the annual historic average, indicating a potential lackluster performance through the 2020s. Global economic activity remains weak, with debt posing challenges to public finances worldwide, and the scars of the pandemic still evident. The IMF anticipates global growth slightly above last year's projection, with the IMF and World Bank set to discuss pressing economic issues at their upcoming spring meetings in Washington.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its global growth forecast for 2024 to 3.1%, 0.2 percentage points higher than its previous projection. This upward revision reflects upgrades for China, the United States, and large emerging markets. However, the projected global growth for 2024 and 2025 is still below the historical average, mainly due to restrictive monetary policies, withdrawal of fiscal support, and low productivity growth. The IMF also noted that inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, but renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt commodity and supply chains, leading to global inflation.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate forecasts are flashing warning signs of a recession just around the corner, top economist David Rosenberg says. "The Fed doesn't want to say this explicitly, but it is actually saying (in not so many words) that a recession is very likely coming our way," Rosenberg said in a note on Thursday. Despite the Fed's optimistic forecast of 2.1% GDP growth and a 4% unemployment rate, Rosenberg sees officials' prediction of a sharp drop in the median federal funds rate as a recession indicator. Related stories The Fed anticipates the median federal funds rate will drop by 150 basis points to 3.
The UK's gross domestic product (GDP) is forecasted to expand by just 0.5% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, making it the second worst performer in the G7 this year and the third best in 2025. Inflation is expected to remain around 2.5% this year but fall towards the Bank of England's 2% target next year. When analysed per head, GDP shows no growth in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025, reflecting living standards. The IMF warns that the global economy has been resilient, but escalating conflicts in the Middle East could raise food and energy prices, affecting lower-income countries more.
Larry Kudlow comments on the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates despite inflation inching up, with commodity prices and grocery prices on the rise. The March jobs report highlighted growth in the healthcare and government sectors, while the economy has not entered a recession despite debates on its strength. President Biden's call to cut rates has sparked political tension, with opposition from Republican officials like Donald Trump and concerns about inflation and economic resilience.
The Labor Department reported a decrease in unemployment claims, with 207,000 applications compared to 212,000 the previous week. The Federal Reserve's 11 rate hikes aimed to curb inflation did not lead to expected layoffs or a recession. Companies outside tech and media, like UPS and Macys, announced job cuts. Despite this, U.S. employers added 303,000 jobs recently, and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%, staying below 4% for 26 months. Around 1.78 million Americans received jobless benefits, 15,000 less than the previous week.
China is expected to experience a faster economic recovery this year due to robust government measures addressing challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and the troubled real estate sector. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in January, China's factory activity improved slightly while non-manufacturing activities expanded at a quicker pace. The purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector rose to 49.2, indicating a recovery in both demand and supply. Additionally, the country's official composite PMI reached 50.9 in January. The International Monetary Fund forecasts China's 2024 growth to be 4.6 percent, higher than its previous projection in October.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised China's GDP growth projection for 2024 to 4.6%, slightly lower than expectations. However, economists believe that the final number may come in closer to 5% due to greater public sector investment. China's strong post-pandemic recovery is attributed to robust private sector growth in industries such as electric vehicles, environmental goods, advanced manufacturing, and the platform economy. The IMF report also highlighted ongoing adjustments in China's property market and the need to close local government fiscal gaps. China's emphasis on sustainable growth drivers and commitment to carbon neutrality were praised by the IMF.
This is a list of U.S. states and territories by gross domestic product (GDP). This article presents the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia and their nominal GDP at current prices.The data source for the list is the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in 2022. The BEA defined GDP by state as "the sum of value added from all industries in the state."Nominal GDP does not take into account differences in the cost of living in different countries, and the results can vary greatly from one year to another based on fluctuations in the exchange rates of the country's currency. Such fluctuations may change a country's ranking from one year to the next, even though they often make little or no difference in the standard of living of its population.Overall, in the calendar year 2022, the United States' Nominal GDP at Current Prices totaled at $25.463 trillion, as compared to $23.315 trillion in 2021.The three U.S. states with the highest GDPs were California ($3.6 trillion), Texas ($2.356 trillion), and New York ($2.053 trillion). The three U.S. states with the lowest GDPs were Vermont ($40.6 billion), Wyoming ($47.4 billion), and Alaska ($63.6 billion).GDP per capita also varied widely throughout the United States in 2022, with New York ($105,226), Massachusetts ($99,274), and North Dakota ($96,461) recording the three highest GDP per capita figures in the U.S., while Mississippi ($47,572), Arkansas ($54,644), and West Virginia ($54,870) recorded the three lowest GDP per capita figures in the U.S. The District of Columbia, though, recorded a GDP per capita figure far higher than any U.S. state in 2022 at $242,853.
China's GDP grew 5.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, up 1.6 percent from the fourth quarter of last year, showing China's economy is on a solid footing for continued recovery, which will further enhance international expectations for China's development prospects. A series of international financial institutions such as the Asian Development Bank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley recently raised their forecasts for China's economic growth this year. A report released by the Asian Development Bank anticipates China will contribute 46 percent to the economic growth of developing countries in Asia this year and the next, and will remain the largest contributor to global economic growth.
India's economy grew by 8.4% in the last quarter of 2023, maintaining its position as the world's fastest growing major economy. The growth was driven by a strong performance in the manufacturing sector and increased private consumption. Prime Minister Modi has focused on boosting infrastructure and manufacturing of technology products to enhance India's competitiveness. Despite agricultural struggles due to monsoon rains, India is projected to overtake Japan and Germany to become the world's third largest economy. The International Monetary Fund expects India's economy to grow by 6.5% in 2024, surpassing China's growth rate of 4.6%.
Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to cool the labor market, the number of Americans applying for jobless benefits decreased by 11,000 to 211,000 last week. The four-week average of claims also fell to 214,250. In March, the U.S. added 303,000 jobs, reducing the unemployment rate to 3.8%, marking the longest streak of staying below 4% since the 1960s. However, companies like Google, Apple, Amazon, and others have recently announced layoffs, with a total of 1.82 million Americans collecting jobless benefits by the end of March.
U.S. stock indexes, including the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, are slightly up as investors await key market reports on inflation and corporate profits. Traders are uncertain about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts due to recent mixed economic data, with expectations ranging from two to zero cuts this year. Companies may need to show strong profit growth to support current stock price levels.
Small business optimism in the US declined in March to its lowest level in over a decade, with the National Federation of Independent Business reporting a drop to 88.5 on its Small Business Optimism Index. Concerns about inflation top the list of worries for small business owners, with 25% citing it as a significant issue. The Federal Reserve's focus on combating inflation through high interest rates has made it harder for small businesses to secure loans. Despite a decrease in the unemployment rate, 37% of small business owners still have unfilled job openings, indicating labor market challenges.
The Chinese economy withstood pressures both at home and overseas to grow 5.2 percent year-on-year in 2023. The additional economic girth exceeded 6 trillion yuan ($830 billion), equivalent to the yearly GDP of a medium-sized economy. The international environment was complex and challenging in 2023, and domestic tasks for reform, development and stability were also arduous and heavy. Pessimistic views of the Chinese economy and those calling for so-called de-risking gained stronger voices, which exaggerated the problems of the Chinese economy's post-pandemic recovery and ignored its strong resilience, great potential and clear vitality.
The U.S. housing affordability crisis has intensified with the median monthly housing payment reaching a record $2,775, marking an 11% increase from the previous year. Factors driving the crisis include underbuilding, high mortgage rates, and costly construction materials, leading to limited supply and elevated prices. Economists predict that mortgage rates will remain high until the first half of 2024, with little expectation of returning to pre-pandemic lows. The Federal Reserve's hesitation to cut rates has further fueled uncertainty, pushing average 30-year loan rates above 7%. Sellers with low mortgage rates are reluctant to sell, exacerbating inventory shortages and price hikes.
GDP (PPP) means gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity. This article includes a list of countries by their forecast estimated GDP (PPP). Countries are sorted by GDP (PPP) forecast estimates from financial and statistical institutions that calculate using market or government official exchange rates. The data given on this page are based on the international dollar, a standardized unit used by economists. Certain regions that are not widely considered countries such as Hong Kong also show up in the list if they are distinct jurisdiction areas or economic entities.GDP comparisons using PPP are arguably more useful than those using nominal GDP when assessing the domestic market of a state because PPP takes into account the relative cost of local goods, services and inflation rates of the country, rather than using international market exchange rates, which may distort the real differences in per capita income. It is however limited when measuring financial flows between countries and when comparing the quality of same goods among countries. PPP is often used to gauge global poverty thresholds and is used by the United Nations in constructing the human development index. These surveys such as the International Comparison Program include both tradable and non-tradable goods in an attempt to estimate a representative basket of all goods.The first set of data on the left columns of the table includes estimates for the year 2023 made for each economy of the 196 economies (189 U.N. member states and 7 areas of Aruba, Hong Kong, Kosovo, Macau, Palestine, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan) covered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s International Financial Statistics (IFS) database. The data is in millions of international dollars and was calculated and published by the IMF in October 2023. The second table includes data, mostly for the year 2022, for 180 of the 193 current United Nations member states as well as Hong Kong and Macau (the two Chinese Special Administrative Regions). Data are in millions of international dollars; they were compiled by the World Bank. The third table is a tabulation of the CIA World Factbook GDP (PPP) data update of 2019. The data for GDP at purchasing power parity has also been rebased using the new International Comparison Program price surveys and extrapolated to 2007. Non-sovereign entities (the world, continents, and some dependent territories) and states with limited recognition (such as Kosovo, Palestine and Taiwan) are included in the list in cases in which they appear in the sources. These economies are not ranked in the charts here, but are listed in sequence by GDP for comparison. In addition, non-sovereign entities are marked in italics.
The UK government borrowed more than expected in the past year, with a deficit of 120.7 billion pounds and debt at 98.3% of GDP in March 2024, raising concerns about the ability to implement tax cuts before the upcoming general election. Economists suggest limited fiscal 'headroom' for tax cuts due to the budget deficit exceeding forecasts, potentially leading to financial challenges post-election. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt may face tough decisions between raising taxes for public services or maintaining recent tax cuts.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. climbed 3.5% in March from a year ago, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target for the third consecutive month. WalletHub compared 23 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) to assess the impact of inflation, highlighting Honolulu with a 4.8% increase, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach region with a 4.9% rise, and San Bernardino-Riverside-Ontario area with a 4.7% hike.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is considering larger public spending cuts in order to deliver tax cuts, as economic forecasts suggest a bleaker picture of public finances. The UK economy has slipped into recession, raising concerns about economic growth. Interest costs on government borrowing have increased, placing pressure on household finances. Hunt believes that bringing inflation down is crucial to fund public services for the future, and tax cuts should be implemented responsibly. The International Monetary Fund and the Institute for Fiscal Studies have advised against further tax cuts, citing unrealistic spending plans and the risk of future tax rises or spending cuts.
According to a Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey, India is seen as a better investment prospect than Japan or China due to its ability to turn economic growth into corporate profits. Factors supporting India's attractiveness include the transmission of GDP growth into earnings growth, a track record of consistent earnings growth, and a supportive geopolitical environment. Indian equities trade at around 23 times next year's expected earnings, surpassing the US, Japan, and China. The survey reflects confidence in India Inc amidst upcoming general elections and record-breaking stock market performances in India and Japan.
(Bloomberg) -- Caterpillar Inc. reported first-quarter results that showed machinery sales slipping from a year earlier and warned that the trend is expected to continue in its second quarter. Most Read from Bloomberg Malaysia in Talks With Tycoons on Casino to Revive $100 Billion Forest City Bidens Gains Against Trump Vanish on Deep Economic Pessimism, Poll Shows Zuckerberg Asks for Patience as Metas AI Push Spooks Investors How to Get a Meeting With the UAEs $1.5 Trillion Man Metas Miss Sparks Fears in Tech With More Earnings Ahead Shares of Caterpillar fell as much as 9.1% in New York, the biggest intraday decline in four years, after the heavy equipment maker said in its earnings report that it expects second-quarter sales to be lower than the year-earlier period.
Stock prices in Japan are being monitored closely as an electronic board displays the yen and U.S. dollar exchange rates at a securities firm in Tokyo. Meanwhile, on Wall Street in New York, the market is rising in anticipation of the U.S. government's update on inflation, which may impact the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision.
This article includes a lists of countries and dependent territories sorted by their real gross domestic product growth rate; the rate of growth of the value of all final goods and services produced within a state in a given year. The figures are from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Database unless otherwise specified.This list is not to be confused with the list of countries by real GDP per capita growth, which is the growth rate of GDP per person recalculated according to the changing number of the population of the country.
Gold prices reached a new record high, with spot gold trading at $2,245.79 per ounce and U.S. gold futures at $2,266.39 per ounce. Market speculators are gaining confidence in U.S. interest rate cuts expected in May or June. The U.S. Federal Reserve's key inflation gauge climbed 2.8% year-on-year, likely delaying rate cuts. Meanwhile, overseas demand and central bank purchases, particularly from China, are boosting bullion prices. In the U.S., stocks edged higher following new inflation data, indicating a potential interest rate cut in June.
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