The International Monetary Fund has increased the global growth forecast for 2024 to 3.2%, with India's growth projection raised to 6.8% due to bullish domestic demand and a rising working-age population. China's growth projection is at 4.6%. Policymakers are advised to focus on economic resilience, with the IMF expecting global growth to remain steady at 3.2% in 2024. Central banks may start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year as global inflation is projected to decline. The US economy is rebounding strongly, while the Euro area is recovering more gradually.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its global growth forecast for 2024 to 3.1%, 0.2 percentage points higher than its previous projection. This upward revision reflects upgrades for China, the United States, and large emerging markets. However, the projected global growth for 2024 and 2025 is still below the historical average, mainly due to restrictive monetary policies, withdrawal of fiscal support, and low productivity growth. The IMF also noted that inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, but renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt commodity and supply chains, leading to global inflation.
The International Monetary Fund's Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, warns that strong economic activity in the United States and emerging markets is projected to drive global growth by about 3% in 2024, below the annual historic average, indicating a potential lackluster performance through the 2020s. Global economic activity remains weak, with debt posing challenges to public finances worldwide, and the scars of the pandemic still evident. The IMF anticipates global growth slightly above last year's projection, with the IMF and World Bank set to discuss pressing economic issues at their upcoming spring meetings in Washington.
The Asian Development Bank has raised China's growth forecast to 4.8% in 2024, expecting fiscal policies to drive investment in manufacturing and infrastructure, while also predicting a strong performance in high-tech sectors and foreign direct investment. In India, the ADB increased the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7%, attributing it to public and private sector investment and improved consumer demand. The bank projected India's growth at 7.2% for 2025-26, emphasizing the country's importance in the Asia-Pacific region.
China's gross domestic product grew by 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024, beating the estimated 4.6% growth. Factory activity has been robust, with an increase in manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) and overseas demand. China has set an annual growth target of around 5% for 2024 amidst weak consumer and business confidence and a downturn in the real estate sector. Authorities are implementing measures like interest rate cuts to boost bank lending and infrastructure investment.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised China's GDP growth projection for 2024 to 4.6%, slightly lower than expectations. However, economists believe that the final number may come in closer to 5% due to greater public sector investment. China's strong post-pandemic recovery is attributed to robust private sector growth in industries such as electric vehicles, environmental goods, advanced manufacturing, and the platform economy. The IMF report also highlighted ongoing adjustments in China's property market and the need to close local government fiscal gaps. China's emphasis on sustainable growth drivers and commitment to carbon neutrality were praised by the IMF.
China is expected to experience a faster economic recovery this year due to robust government measures addressing challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and the troubled real estate sector. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in January, China's factory activity improved slightly while non-manufacturing activities expanded at a quicker pace. The purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector rose to 49.2, indicating a recovery in both demand and supply. Additionally, the country's official composite PMI reached 50.9 in January. The International Monetary Fund forecasts China's 2024 growth to be 4.6 percent, higher than its previous projection in October.
China's economy continues to show signs of recovery with increased construction activity, higher bid-winning amounts for project investments, improved business operations, positive momentum from foreign trade, and a rebound in consumer activity both offline and online. Leading indicators indicate a rapid recovery post the Spring Festival holiday, with various sectors showing growth compared to the previous year. International financial institutions and the IMF have raised growth forecasts for China's economy and other emerging economies in Asia for 2024.
The UK's gross domestic product (GDP) is forecasted to expand by just 0.5% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, making it the second worst performer in the G7 this year and the third best in 2025. Inflation is expected to remain around 2.5% this year but fall towards the Bank of England's 2% target next year. When analysed per head, GDP shows no growth in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025, reflecting living standards. The IMF warns that the global economy has been resilient, but escalating conflicts in the Middle East could raise food and energy prices, affecting lower-income countries more.
India's economy grew by 8.4% in the last quarter of 2023, maintaining its position as the world's fastest growing major economy. The growth was driven by a strong performance in the manufacturing sector and increased private consumption. Prime Minister Modi has focused on boosting infrastructure and manufacturing of technology products to enhance India's competitiveness. Despite agricultural struggles due to monsoon rains, India is projected to overtake Japan and Germany to become the world's third largest economy. The International Monetary Fund expects India's economy to grow by 6.5% in 2024, surpassing China's growth rate of 4.6%.
China's Deputy Consul General in New York refuted claims of an economic slowdown in China, emphasizing the country's stable economic foundation and growth. The Chinese economy showed progress in 2021 with total output surpassing $17.5 trillion and accounting for 32% of global economic growth. Forecasts from the IMF and Economist Intelligence Unit predict sound growth for China in 2022. Recent Lunar New Year celebrations highlighted China's economic vitality, boosting market confidence. Importantly, the value of exports in key sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaic products reached record highs.
China's economy started the year with robust growth, with a forecasted year-on-year GDP growth of about 4.8% for the first quarter and around 5.1% for the second quarter. Manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March, with the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rising to 51.1. Official factory data also showed positive growth, indicating a bright start to the year. Policymakers aim to maintain high growth rates through fiscal support and stimulus measures amidst lingering uncertainties in the economy.
Sri Lanka's economy is recovering, with inflation decreasing from 70% in 2022 to 5.9% last month. The country's year-on-year economic expansion in Q3 2023 was 1.6% and 4.5% in Q4. Following a $83 billion debt crisis, Sri Lanka secured a $2.9 billion IMF bailout package with debt forgiveness from major creditors like India, Japan, and China. President Wickremesinghe restored electricity and eased shortages, but public discontent remains due to high taxes and living costs, leading to reduced buying power and high unemployment.
According to a Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey, India is seen as a better investment prospect than Japan or China due to its ability to turn economic growth into corporate profits. Factors supporting India's attractiveness include the transmission of GDP growth into earnings growth, a track record of consistent earnings growth, and a supportive geopolitical environment. Indian equities trade at around 23 times next year's expected earnings, surpassing the US, Japan, and China. The survey reflects confidence in India Inc amidst upcoming general elections and record-breaking stock market performances in India and Japan.
The economy of India has transitioned from a mixed planned economy to a mixed middle-income developing social market economy with notable public sector in strategic sectors. It is the world's fifth-largest economy by nominal GDP and the third-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP); on a per capita income basis, India ranked 139th by GDP (nominal) and 127th by GDP (PPP). From independence in 1947 until 1991, successive governments followed Soviet model and promoted protectionist economic policies, with extensive Sovietization, state intervention, demand-side economics, natural resources, bureaucrat driven enterprises and economic regulation. This is characterised as dirigism, in the form of the Licence Raj. The end of the Cold War and an acute balance of payments crisis in 1991 led to the adoption of a broad economic liberalisation in India and indicative planning. Since the start of the 21st century, annual average GDP growth has been 6% to 7%. The economy of the Indian subcontinent was the largest in the world for most of recorded history up until the onset of colonialism in early 19th century.Nearly 70% of India's GDP is driven by domestic consumption; country remains the world's sixth-largest consumer market. Apart from private consumption, India's GDP is also fueled by government spending, investments, and exports. In 2022, India was the world's 6th-largest importer and the 9th-largest exporter. India has been a member of the World Trade Organization since 1 January 1995. It ranks 63rd on the Ease of doing business index and 40th on the Global Competitiveness Index. With 476 million workers, the Indian labour force is the world's second-largest. India has one of the world's highest number of billionaires and extreme income inequality.During the 2008 global financial crisis, the economy faced a mild slowdown. India endorsed Keynesian policy and initiated stimulus measures (both fiscal and monetary) to boost growth and generate demand. In subsequent years, economic growth revived. The period between 2004 and 2014 is referred to as India's lost decade as India fell behind other BRIC economies.In 2021–22, the foreign direct investment (FDI) in India was $82 billion. The leading sectors for FDI inflows were the service sector, the computer industry, and the telecom industry. India has free trade agreements with several nations and blocs, including ASEAN, SAFTA, Mercosur, South Korea, Japan, Australia, UAE, and several others which are in effect or under negotiating stage.The service sector makes up more than 50% of GDP and remains the fastest growing sector, while the industrial sector and the agricultural sector employs a majority of the labor force. The Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange are some of the world's largest stock exchanges by market capitalisation. India is the world's sixth-largest manufacturer, representing 2.6% of global manufacturing output. Nearly 65% of India's population is rural, and contributes about 50% of India's GDP. India faces high unemployment, rising income inequality, and a drop in aggregate demand. India's gross domestic savings rate stood at 29.3% of GDP in 2022. In recent years, independent economists and financial institutions have accused the government of manipulating various economic data, especially GDP growth. India's overall social spending as a share of GDP in 2021–22 will be 8.6%, which is much lower than the average for OECD nations.
Egypt signed an expanded $8bn deal with the IMF, building on a previous $3bn agreement from December 2022 that required a more flexible exchange-rate system. The Central Bank of Egypt raised interest rates by 600 basis points and allowed the Egyptian pound to be dictated by market forces to combat inflation and attract foreign investment. Egypt will also receive a $1.2bn loan for environmental sustainability. The Egyptian economy, facing challenges from austerity, COVID-19, and regional conflicts, suffered a 50% loss in the pound's value against the US dollar since January 2022, with nearly 30% of the population living in poverty.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services from a nation in a given year. Countries are sorted by nominal GDP estimates from financial and statistical institutions, which are calculated at market or government official exchange rates. Nominal GDP does not take into account differences in the cost of living in different countries, and the results can vary greatly from one year to another based on fluctuations in the exchange rates of the country's currency. Such fluctuations may change a country's ranking from one year to the next, even though they often make little or no difference in the standard of living of its population.Comparisons of national wealth are also frequently made on the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP), to adjust for differences in the cost of living in different countries. Other metrics, nominal GDP per capita and a corresponding GDP (PPP) per capita are used for comparing national standard of living. On the whole, PPP per capita figures are less spread than nominal GDP per capita figures.The rankings of national economies over time have changed considerably; the United States surpassed the British Empire's output around 1916, which in turn had surpassed the Qing dynasty in aggregate output decades earlier. Since China's transition to a socialist market economy through controlled privatisation and deregulation, the country has seen its ranking increase from ninth in 1978, to second in 2010; China's economic growth accelerated during this period and its share of global nominal GDP surged from 2% in 1980 to 18% in 2021. Among others, India has also experienced an economic boom since the implementation of economic liberalisation in the early 1990s.The first list includes estimates compiled by the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, the second list shows the World Bank's data, and the third list includes data compiled by the United Nations Statistics Division. The IMF definitive data for the past year and estimates for the current year are published twice a year in April and October. Non-sovereign entities (the world, continents, and some dependent territories) and states with limited international recognition (such as Kosovo and Taiwan) are included in the list where they appear in the sources.
This is an alphabetical list of countries by past and projected gross domestic product (nominal) as ranked by the IMF. Figures are based on official exchange rates, not on the purchasing power parity (PPP) methodology. Values are given in millions of United States dollars (USD) and have not been adjusted for inflation. These figures have been taken from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database (October 2023 edition) and/or other sources.For older GDP trends, see List of regions by past GDP (PPP).
Pakistan's Finance Minister announced the plan to issue Panda Bonds worth $300 million to tap the Chinese market, highlighting the strength of China's bond market. The country aims to enhance the volume of these bonds gradually. Additionally, Pakistan intends to seek a long-term loan from the IMF after the current $3 billion bailout package ends, with the focus on stabilizing the economy and reducing inflation rates.
The International Monetary Fund confirmed a deal to increase Egypt's bailout loan from $3 billion to $8 billion to address a shortage of foreign currency and soaring inflation. Egypt agreed to reforms like floating the local currency and reducing public investment. The country faces challenges from government austerity, the pandemic, conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and Red Sea disruptions. Growth slowed to 3.8% in 2022-23, with inflation at 36% in February. Nearly 30% of Egyptians live in poverty. Egypt also secured a 7.4 billion-euro aid package from the EU to boost its economy.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Governor of People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, have emphasized the need for accelerating reforms on quota allocation at the IMF to increase Asia's representation. President Xi also reiterated to Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte that attempts to restrict China's access to technology will not impede the country's progress.
(Bloomberg) -- European equity futures tracked the grim Asian session as signs of fading momentum in Chinas economy added to angst over elevated US interest rates and tensions in the Middle East. Most Read from Bloomberg Beyond the Ivies: Surprise Winners in the List of Colleges With the Highest ROI Trump Medias $5.3 Billion Selloff Deepens as 270% Rally Fizzles S&P 500 Breaks Below 5,100 as Big Tech Sells Off: Markets Wrap Irans Attack on Israel Sparks Race to Avert a Full-Blown War Apple Faces Worst iPhone Slump Since Covid as Rivals Rise The Euro Stoxx 50 contract dropped over 1%, while contracts on US stocks were steady after the S&P 500 slid to the lowest in more than a month overnight following robust retail sales data. In Asia, a gauge of regional stocks tumbled the most since August, with every major market seeing broad-based losses, after a slew of Chinas economic indicators showed that the nations economic recovery remains patchy. A global index of emerging market currencies dropped, with South Koreas won and the Indonesia rupiah weakening to multi-year lows.
Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have reached a staff-level agreement for the release of $1.1bn from a $3bn bailout package to avert a sovereign default. The funds are the final tranche of a rescue package agreed upon last year, with Pakistan seeking more financial assistance for its struggling economy. The IMF highlighted Pakistan's improved economic position but noted the need for further policy reforms to address economic vulnerabilities. Islamabad is also looking to secure another long-term bailout amidst ongoing financial challenges.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised the UK against further tax cuts and expressed skepticism about Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's spending plans, raising questions about his ability to meet fiscal rules. The IMF recommended strengthening carbon and property taxation, eliminating loopholes in wealth and income taxation, and reforming the pensions triple lock. The comments came as the IMF cut its forecast for UK growth next year to 1.6% and lowered its outlook for Germany to 0.5%. Chancellor Hunt has repeatedly stated his plans to cut taxes to boost growth.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected, with initial claims jumping to 215,000, above estimates. Continuing claims also increased to 1.9 million, the highest since November. Despite job cuts by major companies like Alphabet, Amazon, and American Airlines, the labor market unexpectedly added 353,000 new jobs at the start of the year. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%, hinting at a resilient job market amidst rising interest rates. Policymakers aim to address inflation through interest rate hikes.
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